This will be presented to the Russian public as having been caused by the Ukrainians themselves as they prepared to use nuclear weapons against Russia. Nuclear escalation may come in the form of an “accident” in one of the power plants. However, these facts are irrelevant as the Russian public is clearly being prepared for nuclear escalation in Ukraine. These stories are contrary to the assessments of the International Atomic Energy Agency, according to which Ukraine has no military nuclear capacity and no plans to develop it. In the immediate aftermath of these attacks, Russian state media has been filled with fake stories concerning how Ukraine supposedly maintained its nuclear capability despite having formally given up all weapons in the 1990s. It remains unclear as to whether or not these forces are directly subordinated to the command of the Russian armed forces. With regards to this second site, it is important to note that Enerhodar was seized by elite Chechen troops loyal to Ramzan Kadyrov. The world was shocked when Russian troops first took over the Chernobyl site and then seized Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Enerhodar. Inevitably, Putin will begin the third phase of the war: the nuclear blackmail of Europe. This is in spite of them being faced with Russian machine guns.Ī long war in its current form is impossible as the Russian forces have no broad fronts, no logistics and no reserves. Citizens of several cities that the Russian forces have managed to occupy have come out into the streets unarmed with Ukrainian flags to demonstrate their displeasure. Russia’s scorched earth tactic only motivates the population further to do more to defend Ukraine to the last drop of blood. The mass killing of civilians by Russia has not (and will not) induce either Ukraine’s leadership, nor the army or society to surrender. But what if Ukraine will not capitulate? Since February 24th the Ukrainian military has scored one local victory after another against Russian soldiers and armour. Putin said that he will not stop the war until Ukraine capitulates. New production needs time and components are impossible to import. However, Russia’s stockpile of bombs and missiles is not unlimited. The destruction of infrastructure and mass killing of civilians can only be accomplished through the “Syria-style” use of rockets and aircraft. The second phase of the war will eventually end as the ground assault has been effectively halted. Despite this, it is likely that he will soon advance to the third phase of the war. Looking at the likely scenarios of the war published on March 1st, we see that Putin has now moved from his second phase. President Zelenskyy has emphasised that the blood of our dead will stain the hands of those who refuse to provide Ukrainians with the means to effectively defend ourselves. If you cannot use your own aircraft and personnel, at least provide us with jets to protect our cities and children.įor the moment, the West remains deaf to the pleas of Ukrainians. Ukraine’s political leaders and ordinary citizens have repeatedly issued pleas to the international community to declare and enforce a no-fly zone in Ukraine to provide protection to humanitarian corridors. In the last few days we have witnessed this tactic being used in the sea port of Mariupol and in the town of Irpin near Kyiv. For example, a green corridor for the evacuation of civilians is announced and then these civilians, including children, are killed as they try to exit their destroyed cities. Indeed, it is part of the overall strategy of Russia’s forces. Russia’s contravention of the rules of war and international conventions is not a coincidence. These tactics are also often used to target cultural heritage sites. Hence, we have seen air strikes on residential areas with unguided heavy bombs and missiles (including the use of prohibited weapons like cluster bombs), as well as the shelling of civilian targets with heavy artillery. The goal is to kill as many civilians and destroy as much civilian infrastructure as possible in order to force Ukraine’s capitulation. The second phase of the war is now based on the scorched earth strategy that was successfully employed in Chechnya and Syria. Thanks to the heroism, resilience and enthusiasm of the Ukrainian military, acting with the mobilised support of the entire Ukrainian population, Putin’s blitzkrieg turned into a “blitzfail”. A short victorious war using mobile ground forces and airborne and amphibious assaults was meant to capture major cities, overthrow Ukraine’s democratic government and install a pro-Kremlin regime. Putin’s initial strategy in Ukraine was a blitzkrieg. Cooling towers of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station near city Enerhodar, Ukraine.
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